clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Will Chelsea Drop Enough Points To Be Caught By Manchester City?

New, comments
Mike Hewitt/Getty Images

With just 13 games remaining in the 2014-2015 Premier League season, Manchester City sit seven points back of first place Chelsea. This means that City need Chelsea to drop some points to have any chance at claiming a second consecutive title. Will their remaining Premier League schedule allow for enough dropped points to give City a chance?

So far this season, Chelsea have dropped a total of 16 points (5 draws, 2 losses). The number of points they've dropped to each Premier League club are as follows:

  • City – 4 (2 draws)
  • Newcastle – 3 (1 loss)
  • Tottenham – 3 (1 loss)
  • United – 2 (1 draw)
  • Southampton – 2 (1 draw)
  • Sunderland – 2 (1 draw)

So, out of Chelsea's sixteen dropped points this season, eleven points have come from teams currently in positions two through six in the Premier League table, three points from positions seven through fourteen, and two points from positions fifteen and below.

Conversely, Chelsea have picked up 10 points against teams in the top 6, 30 points against teams ranked 7-14, and 19 against teams positioned in the bottom 6. Some simple division will give you a success rate, so to speak, in terms of how many points Chelsea are getting out of their possible points against each level of the table.

  • Against the top six: 47.6%
  • Against positions 7-14: 90.9%
  • Against positions 15-20: 90.5%

Of Chelsea's final thirteen games, three are against teams in the top six, five are against teams in positions seven through fourteen, and five are against teams in the bottom six. There are a possible nine points available for Chelsea against the top six, 15 points against teams 7-14, and 15 against teams 15-20. Using their success rates to this point in the season, we can estimate the number of points Chelsea will gain from their final 13 games.

  • Against the top six: 47.6% of 9 points = 4.28 points
  • Against positions 7-14: 90.9% of 15 points = 13.63 points
  • Against positions 15-20: 90.5% of 15 points = 13.57 points
  • Total = 31.48 points

So, if they play the way they've played to this point in the season, Chelsea will earn somewhere in the neighborhood of 31 or 32 points in their last 13 matches, out of a possible 39. While this quick math is admittedly flawed in that it doesn't take into account home and road matches or midweek fixtures, it further demonstrates that, barring a massive Chelsea meltdown, even a perfect run in from City may not be enough to win the title. And given City's performance in the last two months, expecting a perfect run in from them seems just as silly as expecting Chelsea to fall apart.

Below is a list of Chelsea's remaining matches, sorted by home and away.

Home

  • Burnley
  • Southampton
  • Stoke
  • United
  • Crystal Palace
  • Liverpool
  • Sunderland

Away

  • Leicester
  • West Ham
  • Hull
  • QPR
  • Arsenal
  • West Brom