Manchester City can clinch first place in UEFA Champions Group D with a win in Turin on Wednesday against Juventus, But what if Manchester City draw against Juventus? If the Blues win on the final matchday against Borussia Mönchengladbach, City still would claim the group title and avoid the possibility of playing Barcelona, Bayern Munich or Real Madrid in the Round of 16.
But what if Juventus wins on Wednesday and then draws in Sevilla on the final matchday while City beats Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Juventus wins the group based on the tiebreaker scenario which is based on head-to-head play and not goal difference overall.
In fact based on Manchester City's loss at the Etihad in September to Juventus, no scenario currently exists where the Blues can win a tiebreaker against Juventus, because a City victory in Turin will clinch the group, eliminating the need for the use of a tiebreaker. A draw with Juventus ensures the Italian giants will win any tiebreaker with City.
Given that Juve's last group stage match is at Sevilla and the Blues play host to Borussia Mönchengladbach in Manchester, the odds favor City to win the group even with a draw on Wednesday. But any tiebreaker will favor Juventus.