The link to the numbers is here. I will re-post the numbers at the bottom of the page.
26.9 years old is the league average.
For me this chart puts into context Lukaku's ability to play in the Premier League. The fact that he succeeded, excelled even, in the semi full-time minutes he played is remarkable.
The spike at age 31 is probably an anomaly or some survivor bias. Berbatov, Zamora, Crouch and Holt are just some of the veterans who played in the league in their 31 year old season.
There were just 10 strikers (who were worth including) under the age of 25 in the Premier League last season. This isn't a development league for young strikers.
Goals Per 90 Minutes
Some of the strikers at the top of the table get a bump from playing few minutes: Sturridge, Hernandez, Le Fondre and Dzeko if you are feeling harsh.
I have highlighted the players who scored at less than 0.25 goals per 90 as players who are probably replaceable. Torres is stuck in between Grant Holt and Cameron Jerome. No further comment required.
Suarez, Van Persie and Bale are the top 3 players in goals per 90 who played genuine full-time minutes.
Shot On Target Per 90
This stat, in my opinion is the most telling of all. the ability to record shots on target on a consistent basis must be a better predictor of future performance that scoring% or even goals themselves.
The top 10 in this category looks strong.
Only 16 players reside above the mean. The top end strikers are skewing the mean with outstanding performances in terms of shots on target.
A player who records above 2 SoT per 90 is probably an elite performer, above 1.5 is likely to be very very good.
if a player is hovering around 1 SoT per 90 then he should really be looking to improve sharpish. Any fewer shots than that are you may not be a Premier League level striker for very long.
All over the place.
League average is a shade over 30% and there are some big names lurking beneath that league average: Aguero, Bale, Defoe, Tevez and Torres are all players who posted sub par scoring%'s. Some of this may be due some regression, but at least some of a players scoring% will be affected by shot location.
The players who lead the way in scoring% are a mix of part time players (Jerome, Le Fondre, Hernandez) and players who may fall hard next year including Michu, Benteke and Fletcher. Again shot locations may have played their part in boosting these scoring%'s but do we know if the ability to shoot from a certain location is a repeatable skill? We are in the same spot with Michu as we were with Demba Ba and Cisse last year.
The Newcastle pair looked due for a fall in scoring% and it went and happened. Ba changed teams so we may be able to give him a pass, Cisse regressed to a more reasonable 35% this year.
How far will Michu's scoring% fall?
I was going to touch on shooting accuracy but instead I'll leave off the final graph and just arrange the main chart to be ordered by shooting accuracy% (league Ave is 39.18%)
One last riddle: If Michu is such a good shooter, or shoots from such good locations, as his scoring% suggests, why does he record 69% of all his shots as off target?
|Team||Age||Player||Goals p90||Assists p90||Shots p90||SoT p90||ToP%||Scoring%||Shot Acc%||Off %|
|Man United||29||van Persie||0.66||0.23||3.95||1.76||87.43||37.7||44.53||55.47|
|West Ham||29||C. Cole||0.13||0.07||2.37||1.05||38.33||12.5||44.44||55.56|