Hello, I have a quick post to put up today. This post will deal with Premier League results only, and will show us which were the most popular results in the EPL for the season just gone.
I shall show how many of each result occured and the percentage likelihood of that result occurring.
As usual I shall break it overall results, then draws, wins to nil and wins with both teams scoring. This will involve some information on which result is most likely to happen, which may be useful for betting purposes, not that we condone gambling here at Bitter and Blue!
Any guesses for the most likely result, dear reader? 1-0? 2-1?
2011/12 EPL Results
| Results | Frequency | % |
| 0 – 0 | 27 | 7.1 |
| 1 – 0 | 54 | 14.2 |
| 1 – 1 | 45 | 11.8 |
| 2 – 0 | 52 | 13.7 |
| 2 – 1 | 64 | 16.8 |
| 2 – 2 | 13 | 3.4 |
| 3 – 0 | 29 | 7.6 |
| 3 – 1 | 29 | 7.6 |
| 3 – 2 | 18 | 4.7 |
| 3 – 3 | 5 | 1.3 |
| 4 – 0 | 13 | 3.4 |
| 4 – 1 | 5 | 1.3 |
| 4 – 2 | 3 | 0.8 |
| 4 – 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 4 – 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 5 – 0 | 7 | 1.8 |
| 5 – 1 | 4 | 1.1 |
| 5 – 2 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 5 – 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 6 – 0 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 6 – 1 | 3 | 0.8 |
| 7 – 1 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 8 – 2 | 1 | 0.3 |
These are the raw numbers for all 380 games in the2011/12 EPL season.
The most popular result in the EPL was........ 2-1. That is 2-1 for the home team or the away team. 64 EPL games finished at this scoreline and that was a 16.8 share of all 380 results.
This isn't surprising, games with 3 goals or under account for 63.6 of all results. Draws account for 24.2 of all results. The average betting odds on a draw in the EPL are around 3/1 and it is this specific result which offers the best chance of a winning return. Trying to guess or bet on a specific score line seems like folly when we see how many different results are likely to occur.
1-0 is the most frequent win to nil with a 14.2 % chance of occurring.
1-1 is the most frequent draw with an 11.8 % chance of occurring.
2-1 is the most frequent win when both teams scored with a 16.7 % chance of occurring
Breakdown of results
Draws
| Results | Goals | % of draws only |
| 0 – 0 | 27 | 29.3 |
| 1 – 1 | 45 | 48.9 |
| 2 – 2 | 13 | 14.1 |
| 3 – 3 | 5 | 5.4 |
| 4 – 4 | 2 | 2.1 |
| 92 draws |
These are only the draw results and their percentage chance of occurring. Their were 92 draws and above is the breakdown of what the likely scoreline will be if the game is drawn.
1-1 is the most frequent with a near 50% chance of that scoreline occurring.
The two 4-4 scorelines are obviously important, Man United losing a two goal lead at home to Everton to draw 4-4 being a crucial turning point in the EPL season, upon which we began to see the mental pressure affect Man Utd, culminating in defeats to both Wigan and Man City away from home.
Wins To Nil
| Results | Goals | % of wins to nil only |
| 1 – 0 | 54 | 34.6 |
| 2 – 0 | 52 | 33.3 |
| 3 – 0 | 29 | 18.5 |
| 4 – 0 | 13 | 8.3 |
| 5 – 0 | 7 | 4.4 |
| 6 – 0 | 1 | 0.6 |
| 156 wins |
These are the numbers for a win when a clean sheet is kept by the winner. The scorelines of 1-0 and 2-0 nil are almost identical. If you believe a team will win to nil its likely to be by one or two goals 67.9 % of the time.
Wins with both teams scoring
| Results | Goals | % of wins with both teams scoring |
| 2 – 1 | 64 | 48.4 |
| 3 – 1 | 29 | 21.9 |
| 3 – 2 | 18 | 13.6 |
| 4 – 1 | 5 | 3.7 |
| 4 – 2 | 3 | 2.2 |
| 4 – 3 | 1 | 0.7 |
| 5 – 1 | 4 | 3.0 |
| 5 – 2 | 2 | 1.5 |
| 5 – 3 | 1 | 0.7 |
| 6 – 1 | 3 | 2.2 |
| 7 – 1 | 1 | 0.7 |
| 8 – 2 | 1 | 0.7 |
| 132 wins |
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There are obviously many more win scorelines when both teams score in the game. 2-1 being by far the most frequent with a 48.4 % chance of occurring.
Over and Under Goals
Under
| Over and Under Goals | Frequency | % |
| Under 0.5 | 27 | 7.1 |
| Under 1.5 | 81 | 21.3 |
| Under 2.5 | 178 | 46.8 |
| Under 3.5 | 271 | 71.3 |
| Under 4.5 | 313 | 82.3 |
The highlighted number above is the important one, most bookmakers lines are over under 2.5 goals. The odds are usually quite similar for over 2.5 goals or under 2.5 goals, depending on which teams are featuring in that said game.
Over
| Over and Under Goals | Frequency | % |
| Over 0.5 | 353 | 92.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 299 | 78.6 |
| Over 2.5 | 202 | 53.1 |
| Over 3.5 | 109 | 28.6 |
| Over 4.5 | 67 | 17.6 |
The bolded number above is over 1.5 goals, and this is a number I would feel comfortable in saying most games-not involving Mcleish's Aston Villa side-would exceed.
The over 0.5 number should merely highlight of ever predicting a game to finish 0-0. You have around a 7% chance of being proved correct.
These are just the numbers for the 2011/12 EPL season and are expected to change slightly for 2012/13 EPL season as result likelihood changes from year-to-year.
Thanks for reading.