Hello, welcome one and all. Here is part 9 of the EPL season review. Today we shall be looking at scoring % in the EPL.
Scoring % is shots on target/goals scored
I shall break this down in scoring % overall and then take a look at the home and away splits. This will tell us which teams were the most efficient in converting their chances and shots on goal. We see some teams we expected toward the top of the chart, but the team who take 1st place in the EPL scoring % is a suprise. Find out who it is after the jump
2011/12 EPL Scoring % (overall)
This is the overall scoring % table for the 38 game season of the 2011/12 EPL, and there are some shocks here for sure. Remember Scoring % runs at a shade over 0.30% for the EPL.
Stoke, the same Stoke who we have been much maligned by the previous shots measures we have looked at, are in 1st place. Stoke don't have any superstar strikers, no £30m signings but they have an extraordinary high scoring % for the quality of players they have in their squad.
This is the major, and most important stat, that Stoke recorded this year. They were poor by shots, shots on target for and against, and, in all honesty, they looked nigh on relegation material by those measures, but this superb scoring % number is what enabled them to endure those bad numbers, to evade them and ride that .382 % to gain 45 points. I believe that without this high (unsustainable?) number that they may well have been a lot closer to relegation than the 9 point cushion they enjoyed.
Man City record a superb number in 2nd place, with .372%, this owes a lot to some superb strikers and excellent attacking play and pressure. Man City had 156 shots more on target than Stoke did, thus we might believe that with a bigger sample size (and City's quality of player) Man City are less vulnerable to regression than Stoke may be next season.
Man Utd are a shade behind Man City in the overall scoring % chart.
Newcastle are a curious case, they didn't record a staggeringly high amount of shots but were very efficient in converting them. Firstly, Demba Ba pre-January was riding a very high personal scoring % (around 0.550%) then, Cisse was signed and scored 13 goals on 21 shots in his EPL debut for a 0.619 scoring % number. Newcastle rode these two very impressive strikers to a 5th placed EPL finish. Can that individual, and, thus team scoring % be sustained into next season? Probably not, look for Newcastle to slip back a few places.
Blackburn were very good by scoring % (Yakubu). Spurs and Chelsea are mid table in the charts above, somewhat of a suprise really. Liverpool prop up the table with a 0.22% number, an exceptionally poor number considering their striking purchases and general talent level. Liverpool were near the top in shots, and shots on target +/-, yet this is the stat that nicked what should have been a higher EPL finish. Will their scoring % be as bad next year? We don't know, but i'd be suprised if it wasn't at least at the EPL average (0.30 %)
2011/12 EPL Scoring % (home)
Here, for the home graphic, I listed the teams and their HOME EPL finishing position. I did this so we could check the home scoring % against the home finishing position. We don't see too much change.
Stoke's number is up to an astronomical 0.41%, it's a crazy number, and fair play to them for converting their (few) shots on goal into goals.
Man City, Newcastle and United round the top 4 out. Arsenal are mid table despite Van Persie's incredible season. Everton slip below the mean, West Brom have a poor scoring % (poor home form all year) and Liverpool are 2nd bottom with a 0.235% number, a poor number at Anfield which contributed to their disappointing home form.
We see home scoring % is a touch higher than the overall Scoring %. Home advantage once again which fits with the measures we looked at previously.
2011/12 EPL Scoring % (away)
The scoring % away number, 0.29%, that we see above is a touch below the overall % number, and a couple of notches below home scoring %. More difficult to convert the shots on target into goals away from home than at home.
Man Utd lead this table (again formatted with away EPL position in the standings) by as big a margin as Stoke led the home table. Can Man Utd sustain that scoring % into next season? Who knows, but probably not. The scoring % away from home was what drove Man Utd's away form all season as they didn't have impressive shot totals or shots on target +/- totals, they suffered injuries and inconsistencies in goal. I believe their high scoring % was a big factor in the EPL's best away form.
Newcastle are right up there, once again. Blackburn and Wolves are top 8 by away scoring % and it's a curious sight to see them there. This didn't lead to a better EPL points total for them, for as we will see in the next post they have atrocious save % numbers. The good cancelled out by the bad.
Chelsea and Spurs both slip into the bottom 4 by away scoring %. A strange sight once again, their respective away forms were both top 6, although Chelsea had only a goal difference of +2 and Spurs +3, so again we might see a poor number (scoring %) saved by an excellent number (save %).
Liverpool, poor again. Fulham, even worse, unthinkable but true. Fulham were not good on the road this year and it's a recurring theme for them over previous EPL seasons.
Scoring % is a good way to evaluate a teams strikers and overall efficiency in converting shots on target to goals. It doesn't tell the whole story but coupled with stats we have already seen and ones we shall shortly see, we can gain a better view of just why and how a team performed as they did in the 2011/12 EPL.
Thanks for reading