How Influential Is Sergio Aguero?

David Rogers

A short article whic will look at how influential Aguero has been in creating offense when on the field of play.

First off, an admission: it is almost impossible to quantify Sergio Aguero's influence on this Man City team. For a start, it is way beyond my modest ability to quantify Aguero's on-field interactions with his team-mates, or how much space Aguero creates for his team-mates as opposition defenders focus more on the Argentine.

Nor can I tell you how much of an impact Aguero's pressing game has on the opposition or just how much Aguero's pace stretches the pitch north to south and creates more space for the Silvas and Toures to sheme and create inbetween the lines of the opposition.

So what can I do with this article? I can investigate the simple and easily conveyable things like what percentage of Man City's offensive output has Aguero contributed when on the field of play? To do this I'll look at Aguero's offensive contribution in terms of shots and goal contribution.

Before I get to that here's Aguero's stat line thus far in the 13/14 Premier League:

Team Age Name Shots p90 SoT p90 Goals p90 Assists p90 Sc% SoT% Passes p90 Giveaways ToP%
City 25 Aguero 5.89 2.94 1.26 0.42 42.86 50.00 31.46 5.15 50.81

Well, Aguero is pretty darn go(o)d.

Shots and especially shots on target per 90 are absolutely through the roof. In fact I have never seen a SoT p90 stat line like this outside of Leo Messi. Aguero's shot volume should ease off as his number of minutes increases.

Goals per90 is bananas high due to not only his excellent shot volume but his ability to get shots on net (SoT%) and a very good scoring% (goals/SoT).

Passes are about average for a PL forward, giveaways are a touch high (bad).

So, Aguero is a very very good player who is, if he can continue this form, on course for a career year.

Aguero's Influence In 2013/14 (PL)

Shots And Key Passes

Team Shots Shots Key Passes
Aguero 235 70 28

Aguero has been on the field for 235 shots and has taken 29.78% of those shots and created (key passes) 16.96% of the shots he hasn't taken.

Goals And Assists

Team Goals Goals Assists
Aguero 40 15 5

Aguero has scored 37.5% of the Man City goals when he has been on the field of play.

Rolling Influence

If we take the information we see above and create a rolling, game-by-game chart of Aguero's influence it looks like this:

Aguero_si_26_medium

Extended periods of injury forced inaction (flat lines) but overall Aguero's influence is outstanding.

Aguero has contributed to a high percentage of shots and a high percentage of goals. The difference bewteen the two percentages may well be finishing talent.

The short of it is this:

Aguero is posting incredibly strong underlying numbers so far this year, not only that but Aguero, despite playing in a team loaded with attacking talent is contributing to 50% of Man City's goals and ~42% of Man City's shots when on the field of play.

Aguero has been mightily influential on this Man City team, in fact if we use this article which looks at the 2012/13 influence of Suarez (43%), Bale (43%) and Messi (51.2%) the we can see that Aguero, in 2013/14, is posting some very elite shots influence numbers indeed.

Aguero is Tottenham's Bale, Liverpool's Suarez and for Man City to continually be without the striker is obviously damaging in terms of handicapping their ability to win football games. The big issue for Aguero and Man City is how to keep the player healthy and to prevent the frequent muscles strains and pulls because losing a player who contributes so heavily to a teams offense is going to hurt any club, even a club like Man City.

Dzeko, Negredo, Toure, Nasri & Silva

Lets look at some of Aguero's team-mates and how influential they have been in terms of shots and goals infleunce:

Negredo

27.2% Goal Influence.

29.6% Shots Influence.

Si_negredo_medium

Dzeko

23.3% Goals Influence.

31.8% Shots Influence

Si_dzeko_medium

Toure

24.6% Goal Influence.

16.2% Shots Influence.

Si_toure_medium

Silva

25% Goal Influence.

35.2% Shots Influence.

Si_silva_medium

Nasri

15.55 Goals Influence.

25.2% Shots Influence.

Si_nasri_medium

*Haven't had too much time to think this through but......if player X has a lower goals contribution then shots contribution then it may be due to having suffered some bad 'luck'. A high goals contribution but a low shots contribution may be due to some good 'luck'.  Any thoughts?

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