Week 23: Sortable Tables

Total Shots Ratio) Otherwise known as Corsi in hockey. This looks at a teams share of the total (missed/blocked/on target) shots count. shots for / total shots (shots f + shots a)

SoTR (shots On Target Ratio) This looks at a teams share of the shots on target count. shots on target f / total shots on target

Fenwick/Unblocked Shots Ratio This looks at a teams share of the shots count with all blocked shots removed. missed shots f + shots on target f / total missed shots + total shots on target

PDO Scoring% (goals/shots on target) + Save % (100-goals against/shots on target against)

Score Adjusted TSR/SoTR = x team losing minutes per game * [x team losing TSR-League Average Losing TSR] + x team tying minutes per game* [x team tying TSR-league average TSR] + x team winning minutes per game* [x team winning TSR-league average winning TSR]/ 90+50

Week 23 (Sortable Tables)



All tables set to Close Game State.

TSR

West Ham sink after being outshot heavily by Chelsea (San Jose). Very real problems for West Ham right now. Fulham, too.

Pos TSR/Corsi Tied Close Total
1 Man City 67.7 66.1 64.5
3 Chelsea 65.4 63.9 63.6
5 Tottenham 63.9 60.9 58.5
2 Arsenal 62.4 58.8 55.1
9 Southampton 53.0 57.7 57.4
6 Everton 56.2 56.7 56.1
8 Newcastle 61.1 56.5 55.7
4 Liverpool 61.1 54.4 56.1
7 Man United 50.8 52.7 52.9
11 Swansea 48.3 49.6 51.0
15 West Brom 42.4 48.4 48.7
10 Aston Villa 44.8 46.3 47.0
14 Palace 42.7 45.1 46.5
13 Hull 43.0 44.8 43.9
12 Norwich 48.1 44.5 43.5
16 Stoke 46.7 43.8 42.8
17 Sunderland 49.8 42.0 43.6
18 West Ham 36.6 40.1 39.2
19 Fulham 35.8 37.3 39.6
20 Cardiff 33.1 36.1 36.7

SoTR

Chelsea are the best Total SoTR team, City pip them to the Close and Tied crown. West Ham edge toward bottom.

Pos SoTR Tied Close Total
1 Man City 69.3 65.0 64.5
3 Chelsea 66.0 65.0 65.8
2 Arsenal 63.9 60.5 57.4
4 Liverpool 62.7 58.8 61.0
5 Tottenham 62.9 58.2 55.1
6 Everton 56.5 57.8 58.2
9 Southampton 53.6 57.7 58.8
7 Man United 52.6 56.5 55.2
8 Newcastle 59.3 54.8 54.2
11 Swansea 43.4 47.9 52.1
10 Aston Villa 46.9 47.5 48.1
14 Palace 43.0 47.1 45.6
15 West Brom 39.8 46.7 45.3
12 Norwich 50.0 45.5 41.8
13 Hull 42.7 42.1 43.3
16 Stoke 43.2 39.1 38.0
19 Fulham 38.7 38.7 38.8
17 Sunderland 47.1 38.3 40.3
18 West Ham 37.1 35.2 35.3
20 Cardiff 29.4 35.1 34.6

PDO

PDO's gently regressing toward the mean. Arsenal (Save%) and City (scoring%) are stubbornly holding out. Bothe numbers will likely regress toward mean.

Pos Team SC% SAVE% PDO
1 Man City 44.4 68.3 112.7
2 Arsenal 34.4 77.7 112.0
4 Liverpool 37.3 71.4 108.7
18 West Ham 30.1 74.8 105.0
7 Man United 33.9 70.3 104.3
3 Chelsea 31.9 71.0 102.9
6 Everton 27.6 73.9 101.5
13 Hull 31.0 69.2 100.1
15 West Brom 31.4 68.3 99.7
16 Stoke 29.0 69.9 98.9
8 Newcastle 27.6 71.1 98.7
17 Sunderland 27.5 69.2 96.7
10 Aston Villa 28.9 67.0 95.9
20 Cardiff 24.3 70.4 94.7
11 Swansea 28.4 65.6 94.1
5 Tottenham 25.0 68.7 93.7
9 Southampton 29.0 64.5 93.5
12 Norwich 21.7 70.8 92.5
19 Fulham 24.4 66.0 90.4
14 Palace 18.3 68.0 86.3

Close PDO

Now we look at PDO solely at Close Game State (-1, Tied, +1).

Arsenal, Liverpool and City's PDO all rises when we look at Close PDO. This means that outside of Close, each teams PDO is taking a hit.

Close Sc% Close Save% Close PDO
Man City 43.4 71.93 115.33
Arsenal 35.71 79.45 115.17
Liverpool 38.32 73.33 111.65
Chelsea 33.33 71.43 104.76
Everton 28.7 74.68 103.39
Man United 31.87 70 101.87
Tottenham 25.47 76.32 101.79
Newcastle 27.84 73.75 101.59
Stoke 29.41 70.75 100.17
West Ham 25.4 74.14 99.53
West Brom 29.49 68.54 98.03
Hull 28.81 67.9 96.71
Sunderland 25.37 70.37 95.74
Southampton 28.87 66.2 95.06
Aston Villa 29.87 64.71 94.58
Cardiff 22.95 70.8 93.75
Swansea 26.58 66.28 92.86
Norwich 20 71.11 91.11
Fulham 24.29 64.86 89.15
Palace 19.44 65.43 84.88

Score Adjusted TSR

*See above for an explanation on Score Adjusted TSR.

City top this very important table, why? Because City post a very good TSR number when winning. Man City spend a ton of time in a winning position when, usually, teams get out shot .

Obviously, a team who posts a very good winning TSR when the field is tilted against you, so to speak, will see their score adjusted TSR number boosted a little.

City are that team. Chelsea are also very good, the rest of the league is a ways behind.

Pos Team Score Adjusted TSR
2 Arsenal 56.26
10 Aston Villa 46.05
20 Cardiff 37.80
3 Chelsea 64.92
14 Palace 46.30
6 Everton 57.16
19 Fulham 42.00
13 Hull 45.43
4 Liverpool 54.83
1 Man City 69.13
7 Man United 52.57
8 Newcastle 54.92
12 Norwich 43.26
9 Southampton 55.41
16 Stoke 42.61
17 Sunderland 42.24
11 Swansea 49.03
5 Tottenham 58.26
15 West Brom 45.07
18 West Ham 40.21

Here's how Score Adjusted TSR, Close TSR & Standard TSR look when placed with team points totals.

Tsr_values_23_medium

Score Adjusted r2=0.86

Close r2=0.84

Standard r2=0.81

Score Adjusted > Close > Standard. These need more testing, but looking at last years data and this years data, all indications point to using score adjusted TSR over the standard TSR. If you can't pull Score Adjusted TSR then use Close TSR, which I publish here every week.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Bitter and Blue

You must be a member of Bitter and Blue to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Bitter and Blue. You should read them.

Join Bitter and Blue

You must be a member of Bitter and Blue to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Bitter and Blue. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9353_tracker