United 1-2 City: TSR, Shot Frequency and Game State

Alex Livesey

A look at the shot metrics from Monday's derby win.

Throughout the game United bested City in terms of shots by a margin of 15-10 over the ninety minutes. Through the first half United led 9-4, but this showed how profligate both sides were as both City and United managed just one shot on target in the first 45 minutes.

We can see the Total Shot Ratio (TSR) during the ninety minutes. We can see that United pulled ahead around the midpoint mark of the first half and they were at just below 70% when City took the lead, however, this had fallen to around 55% at the point when City subsequently regained the lead through Sergio Aguero.

This is clearly evidenced in the graphic as the margin narrowed during this period before United had a late flurry as they desperately sought to get back into the game:


This late burst is also evidenced in the Shots Per Minute (SPM) average which tracks the moving average over the course of the game. This graphic does illustrate how many periods during the game there were when each of the sides went shot-less, notably City for around 25 minutes or so at the end of the first half and United for the quarter of an hour at the start of the second half.

Unsurprisingly, and after periods where the failed to test Joe Hart, when trailing in the final minutes United were always going to press. City at this point held firm, their ambitions centering around keeping United out.


This graphic shows the breakdown of shots between on target, off target and blocked and we can see that United had a greater number of shots off target (with all six coming in the first half) with City's split rather more even.


If you factor in Game State then this adds more context to the shot battle given that although United out-shot City 15-10, at a tied game state (when it was 0-0 and 1-1) it was 11-10 in favor of United, with a further four shots to nil in favor of United at a +/-1 game state (0-1 and 1-2); City not registering a shot when leading - something that is notable from other games we have studied over the course of the season.

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