Week 13: Alternative Tables

TSR (Total Shots Ratio) Otherwise known as Corsi in hockey. This looks at a teams share of the total (missed/blocked/on target) shots count.   shots for / total shots (shots f + shots a)

SoTR (shots On Target Ratio) This looks at a teams share of the shots on target count. shots on target f / total shots on target

Fenwick/Unblocked Shots Ratio This looks at a teams share of the shots count with all blocked shots removed. missed shots f + shots on target f / total missed shots + total shots on target

PDO Scoring% (goals/shots on target) + Save % (100-goals against/shots on target against)

Week 13 (Sortable Tables)



All tables set to Close Game State.

TSR

A tiered top 3 who all achieve >60% at 'close', then the rest of the league falls off pretty rapidly. Fulham, somehow, slide ever further into the red.

Man United and Liverpool are bang average teams in terms of their shots share. I'm surprised by Liverpool (although not at 'tied'), not so much Man United.

Pos TSR/Corsi Tied Close Total
3 Man City 64.8 67.93 65.6
9 Tottenham 67.39 65.71 64.51
2 Chelsea 60.25 61.22 61.94
1 Arsenal 65.35 58.11 53.87
5 Everton 58.45 57.84 58.26
7 Southampton 54.62 55.98 56.62
6 Newcastle 65.56 55.63 53.32
8 Man United 49.57 52.73 52.22
4 Liverpool 58.65 51.25 52.16
13 Swansea 49.67 51.16 53.03
15 West Ham 49.74 51.02 50
11 Aston Villa 47.19 50.17 50.91
10 Hull 40.24 46.23 45.32
12 West Brom 42.77 45.49 45.94
14 Norwich 47.37 44.92 42.98
16 Stoke 46.91 44.64 43.13
20 Palace 42.74 43.55 45.72
19 Sunderland 44.34 37.17 40.18
17 Cardiff 31.08 35.33 36.29
18 Fulham 26.55 28.07 29.04

SoTR

City improve by the week. Tottenham remain are really good shots on target team. Everton rise a few places following successive games in which they destroyed their opponents by the shots on target count.

Sunderland are as bad as Man City are good.

Pos SoTR Tied Close Total
3 Man City 68.18 68.18 67.97
9 Tottenham 69.23 64.6 63.57
5 Everton 63.08 63.92 63.11
2 Chelsea 58.18 61.39 63.79
1 Arsenal 73.53 60.55 56.92
7 Southampton 61.36 56.52 58
6 Newcastle 68.75 55.77 53.13
8 Man United 50 55.21 53.04
13 Swansea 50.88 53.47 57.5
4 Liverpool 55.77 50.44 53.47
11 Aston Villa 46.15 49.44 51.04
14 Norwich 47.06 46.24 41.96
15 West Ham 45.1 45.88 46.39
16 Stoke 44.83 44.9 41.74
12 West Brom 37.04 40.23 39.42
10 Hull 37.5 40 39.56
20 Palace 41.46 39.74 38.95
17 Cardiff 26.76 31.53 31.36
18 Fulham 27.45 31.46 31.93
19 Sunderland 32.26 30 32.97

Fenwick/USR

If we remove blocked shots, which are weird and may or may not be a skill, then the table alters slightly. Man City have a slighty worse share of the shots when looking at Fenwick. Chelsea and Arsenal look pretty good.

Newcastle, who are up to 6th in the league table, show pretty well here too.

Pos Fenwick Tied Close Total
3 Man City 60.2 65.08 61.54
9 Tottenham 65.94 64.88 63.37
2 Chelsea 57.6 60.17 61.8
1 Arsenal 63.89 56.93 53.06
6 Newcastle 66.96 56.67 53.45
5 Everton 55.13 56.22 57.37
7 Southampton 53.93 53.81 54.59
8 Man United 50.59 53.03 52.19
4 Liverpool 57.69 50.91 53.26
11 Aston Villa 47.73 50.45 50.6
15 West Ham 47.62 49.77 50.2
13 Swansea 48.72 49.49 52.99
16 Stoke 48.8 46.4 44.67
14 Norwich 49.54 46.36 44.75
12 West Brom 42.61 45.26 45.06
10 Hull 41.44 45 43.36
20 Palace 43.33 44.77 45.37
17 Cardiff 33.53 36.14 37.36
19 Sunderland 46.97 32.84 37.61
18 Fulham 26.23 29.35 29.7

PDO

I have talked a lot in recent weeks about save% and how it regresses given time and nearly every team has seen their individual save percentage regress toward the mean in recent weeks, except for one team. Arsenal.

Arsenal have not only held their extremely high save% but they actually improved that save% this week. Arsenal, you're next. That save% is coming down.

Pos Team SC% SAVE% PDO
1 Arsenal 35.53 81.82 117.34
3 Man City 42.7 70 112.7
12 West Brom 36.59 74.6 111.19
4 Liverpool 32.47 76.47 108.94
15 West Ham 34.29 73.58 107.87
2 Chelsea 31.58 74.42 106
17 Cardiff 30.56 75.31 105.86
10 Hull 33.33 71.43 104.76
7 Southampton 27.59 76.19 103.78
8 Man United 33.87 68.52 102.39
16 Stoke 25 74.24 99.24
6 Newcastle 27.94 70 97.94
5 Everton 26.32 71.11 97.43
18 Fulham 30.56 66.2 96.75
11 Aston Villa 26.53 70.21 96.74
14 Norwich 23.4 66.18 89.58
13 Swansea 24.29 63.46 87.75
19 Sunderland 26.67 60.66 87.32
9 Tottenham 13.25 70.83 84.09
20 Palace 18.92 61.4 80.32

Time

A simple premise: each teams average number of minutes per game spent in a winning/drawing/losing position. I sorted this table by losing minutes, you can play around and see which teams reside where in each category.

If we are looking for a stat that has the strongest relationship with goal difference then 'time spent winning' is that stat with an r2 of 0.678. Year to year predictability currently sits at 0.349 and should improve significantly by the seasons end.

Man United's W/D/L numbers couldn't look more different from last seasons superior version of Man United.

Win Draw Lose
1 Arsenal 49.4 31.9 8.7
3 Man City 43.8 37.5 8.7
5 Everton 21.7 57.6 11.5
4 Liverpool 44.3 32.1 13.6
2 Chelsea 30.3 43.5 16.2
6 Newcastle 32.5 38.9 18.5
15 West Ham 15.8 54.8 19.4
9 Tottenham 20.5 49.7 19.8
10 Hull 20.4 48.8 20.8
12 West Brom 19.8 48.7 21.5
16 Stoke 20.4 48.2 22.2
7 Southampton 27.7 38.6 23.7
8 Man United 31.5 34.3 24.2
17 Cardiff 7.4 57.8 24.8
11 Aston Villa 9.1 52.2 28.8
13 Swansea 16.4 43.2 30.5
18 Fulham 12.5 43.4 34.2
19 Sunderland 20.2 32.7 37.2
14 Norwich 12.8 37.1 40.1
20 Palace 8.8 40.8 40.5
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