Week 10: Alternative PL Tables

No 10 Points this week, sorry.

TSR (Total Shots Ratio) Otherwise known as Corsi in hockey. This looks at a teams share of the total (missed/blocked/on target) shots count.   shots for / total shots (shots f + shots a)

SoTR (shots On Target Ratio) This looks at a teams share of the shots on target count. shots on target f / total shots on target

Fenwick/Unblocked Shots Ratio This looks at a teams share of the shots count with all blocked shots removed. missed shots f + shots on target f / total missed shots + total shots on target

PDO Scoring% (goals/shots on target) + Save % (100-goals against/shots on target against)

Week 9 (Sortable Tables)



All tables set to Close Game State.

TSR

City, City, City!

Tottenham, aided by a player with a scatter-gun aim and sloppy shots discipline, are in second place. Say what you want about Newcastle but there they are. third best Close shots team in the division after 10 games. That last sentence, for me, is the biggest surprise of this young season.

Pos TSR/Corsi Tied Close Total
5 Man City 63.79 67.6 65.34
4 Tottenham 71.43 65 64.63
9 Newcastle 64.89 60.62 56.47
2 Chelsea 58.99 60 60.57
1 Arsenal 63.33 58.57 53.21
6 Southampton 56.25 58.49 58.19
8 Man United 48.89 55.15 53.75
7 Everton 57.4 54.75 54.72
3 Liverpool 59.38 51.83 49.65
15 West Ham 47.44 50.22 50.2
13 Swansea 45.08 48.73 52.03
14 Aston Villa 42.22 47.15 47.08
18 Norwich 48.03 45.8 43.11
11 West Brom 43.41 45.77 47.06
17 Stoke 49.26 45.15 45.68
10 Hull 37.4 43.8 43.63
20 Palace 42.86 43.5 46.35
19 Sunderland 47.22 39.83 43.18
12 Cardiff 31.18 33.72 35.11
16 Fulham 26.56 28.37 31.2

SoTR

Yeah, City are miles ahead at close. Arsenal and Tottenham's numbers are powered by some stupid Tied SoTR numbers.

Sunderland, Cardiff, Fulham & Palace occupy the bottom four spots. The savant table predicts the bottom four of the PL after 38 games! Well, maybe not in that order but It's pretty likely that those four teams will be down their come the end of May.

Pos SoTR Tied Close Total
5 Man City 64.86 68.66 69.07
4 Tottenham 73.47 63.16 63.86
1 Arsenal 76.67 62.5 57.41
7 Everton 64.58 61.43 58.33
6 Southampton 62.5 60.81 61.33
9 Newcastle 63.41 59.46 54.74
8 Man United 50 56.58 53.68
2 Chelsea 54.35 56.25 58.89
3 Liverpool 58.33 54.12 53.7
13 Swansea 48.89 53.95 58.7
17 Stoke 47.92 45.57 45.68
18 Norwich 46.34 45.21 40.45
11 West Brom 40.91 44.44 44
14 Aston Villa 38.46 44.29 44.44
15 West Ham 40 41.27 42.65
10 Hull 36.84 39.39 40
20 Palace 38.71 37.5 37.04
16 Fulham 30.77 34.78 38.2
12 Cardiff 27.87 31.03 31.18
19 Sunderland 31.82 30.16 33.33

Fenwick/USR

Remove blocked shots and the table alters ever so slightly.

Pos Fenwick Tied Close Total
5 Man City 58.43 64.79 61.31
4 Tottenham 69.44 64 63.35
9 Newcastle 66.34 61.36 56.28
2 Chelsea 56.36 58.12 60.48
6 Southampton 55.42 57.76 57.95
1 Arsenal 62.5 57.41 52.22
8 Man United 47.83 55.03 53.23
3 Liverpool 58.97 53.45 52.47
7 Everton 52.94 51.83 52.91
15 West Ham 45.45 49.42 50
13 Swansea 45.83 49.01 53.68
14 Aston Villa 42.11 46.93 46.56
17 Stoke 51.38 46.28 46.35
20 Palace 43.1 45.74 46.24
11 West Brom 43.01 45.39 45.61
18 Norwich 48.35 44.83 42.79
10 Hull 40 43.11 42.13
19 Sunderland 44.68 34.67 40.22
12 Cardiff 32.85 33.51 35.32
16 Fulham 26.67 30.32 32.65

PDO

A couple of teams here who are going to have suffer through save% drops which likely means some stupid goals against. Possible that results cool a little with their save percentages dropping off.

I feel sorry for Palace, numbers are darn terrible. If Newcastle have their PDO regress positively and manage to hold onto some of their shots ratios then, my Lord, they could have a real bounce back season.

Pos Team SC% SAVE% PDO
1 Arsenal 34.38 80 114.38
12 Cardiff 34.62 79.69 114.3
6 Southampton 23.91 86.21 110.12
3 Liverpool 29.31 80.39 109.7
2 Chelsea 29.63 78.95 108.58
11 West Brom 30.3 77.27 107.58
15 West Ham 26.67 79.49 106.15
10 Hull 28.57 76.74 105.32
5 Man City 41.18 62.07 103.25
8 Man United 32.69 70.45 103.15
16 Fulham 29.41 73.21 102.63
7 Everton 28 71.43 99.43
4 Tottenham 15 83.87 98.87
14 Aston Villa 28.13 70 98.13
17 Stoke 18.92 75.56 94.47
13 Swansea 21.82 69.23 91.05
9 Newcastle 26.92 62.79 89.71
19 Sunderland 29.17 54.17 83.33
18 Norwich 16.67 64.29 80.95
20 Palace 20 58 78

Shots On Target Rating

A new table here (I may rotate the 5th table on this list - injury, corners, final third, set pieces. That kind of thing) and what Shots On Target Rating shows us is SoT For% + SoT Against%.

SoT For% = shots on target/total shots*100. In short, it looks at how efficient a team is at getting it's shots actually on target. (Lge Ave=~33%)

SoT Against % = 100-shots on target against/total shots against*100. Looks at how effective a team is at preventing the opposition from getting it's shots on target. (Lge Ave=~67%)

If we add these two numbers together we get a rating number that is 100 for the league average.

Fulham look pretty good. It's weird, Fulham get whacked by the normal shots count but are covering for some of that by posting a SoT For % number which looks like Barcelona's. If Fulham's efficiency cools off and their information in tables 1 & 2 doesn't improve then they'll be fucked.

Man United post the 2nd worst SoT Prevention% in the entire league. Only Palace are worse. Liverpool and Arsenal are also in the bottom five.

Just a note on Liverpool and Arsenal: their defensive systems are pretty porous - SoT prevention%'s - but both teams are posting very high save percentages. Something has to give, my guess is we see both teams suffer save% slides.

Also worth noting that the field is far more spread out in terms of SoT For% than it is for SoT Against%. Not really sure why... More skill separation for SoT For%?

Pos Team SoT% Rating SoT For % SoT Prev %
16 Fulham 109.88 40.48 69.4
1 Arsenal 109.6 44.76 64.84
13 Swansea 109.26 42.31 66.95
5 Man City 108.13 40 68.13
7 Everton 106.84 36.5 70.34
3 Liverpool 104.86 40.28 64.58
6 Southampton 104.18 34.07 70.1
4 Tottenham 101.65 34.29 67.37
8 Man United 100.71 37.68 63.03
17 Stoke 98.62 32.46 66.17
9 Newcastle 97.67 32.91 64.75
14 Aston Villa 97.24 25.81 71.43
2 Chelsea 97.22 31.76 65.45
10 Hull 95.33 24.78 70.55
11 West Brom 94.83 29.2 65.63
18 Norwich 93.8 28.8 65
15 West Ham 92.86 23.81 69.05
12 Cardiff 91.48 26.26 65.22
20 Palace 89.32 27.78 61.54
19 Sunderland 88.69 20.69 68
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