2011/12 EPL Season Review--part 3f (expected goals for)

Welcome to part 20 of the 2011/12 season review! Hope everyone is keeping up. Alas, if you are beginning to flag you will be glad to hear this is the penultimate post on possession for now.

Lets look at some fun stuff now. Expected goals for..

Method

EPL average possession was 50%

EPL average goals was 53.3

EPL average goals per 1% of possession was 1.06

So lets look at which teams exceeded their expected 1% of possession number.

Goals For, Possession and Goals Per 1% Of Possession

Gls_f_chart_medium

These are the raw numbers and its fairly easy to trawl down and see which teams were + or - the 1.06 goals per 1% number.

Actual Goals For v Expected Goals For

Goals_and_expected_goals_medium

We see that goals decrease as possession decreases.

Expected goals = teams individual possession number x 1.06 goals per 1% poss, which is the league average.

Actual Goals For v Expected Goals For

Goals_and_expected_goals_differe_medium

There are two teams that truly stand out when looking at the +/- for actual goals for v expected goals for and they are the teams which finished in 1st and 2nd place in the EPL. City and United are miles ahead of the rest of the league.

Swansea, we got what we expected from them considering their shot total numbers.

Wigan, Wolves and Aston Villa all struggle. Words are needed about Liverpool's number, though.

Liverpool had 13 more shots on target than expected and 65 more total shots for than was expected from them but that didn't translate into a + expectancy number in terms of goals for. Liverpool are -12 goals worse than was expected and it is this number alone which gives us the vital clue as to why they underachieved in the EPL in 2011/12. They couldn't score. They had expensive signings who couldn't score.

Liverpool's scoring % ran at 22%, and that is 8% below the mean. If they could have been an average EPL scoring %, at the minimum, Liverpool would have scored 63 goals instead of 47 goals. My rough calculations would presume a points total of 61 or 62 points. And that was within striking distance of Newcastle's 65 points and 5th place finish. the strikers let the team down, Suarez's suspension and Caroll's lack of 5 yard pace and confidence were the underlying causes in my opinion.

Expect Liverpool to rebound next year. They are my dark horses for a top 4 finish.


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