2011/12 EPL Season Review--Possession part 3d (expected shots on target)


Part 18 and now we shall look at actual shots on target versus expected shots on target for each team in the EPL

Join me after the jump to see which teams beat their individual expectations or not.

We are familiar with the methodology now that we are 4 posts old in this series. But for those who are new here is the methodology.

Average EPL possession over the seasons course 50%

Total shots on target for in the EPL 2011/12 3524

Average per team 176.2

Average per 1% of possession 3.52 (176.2/50)

Arsenal as an example- 237 shots on target, 4.03 shots per 1% of Arsenals possession (58.76%).

Expected shots on target for is a teams possession% x 3.52 (the League's average shots on target for per 1% of possession).

Arsenal's expected shots on target was 206 over the course of the season.

Shots On Target For With Possession

Sot_with_poss_medium

Here are the raw numbers. Possession decreases when going from left to right. Team and possession number are listed at the base of the graph.

We see seven teams are north of the mean line. These are the big 6 plus Fulham.

Shots On Target For Per Teams 1% Of Possession

Sot_per_perc_of_teams_poss_medium

This is each teams shots on target for per their individual 1% of possession.

This chart more or less stays the same as the raw data listed in graph 1. We see West Brom join the Big 6 and Fulham.

Stoke and Swansea are the worst teams in the EPL by this measure and the worst by a distance.

There are an awful lot of teams very closely bunched around the mean line. Wolves are within a whisker of Newcastle, for example.

Shots On Target For Per Teams' 1% Of Possession (differential)

Sot_actaul_v_exp_per_one_perc_differential_medium

The above chart emphasises Swansea's and Stoke's inability to get shots on target relative to their individual possession numbers.

Shots on target for, or against, is the most important statistic that we possess when talking about football. Total shots data has it's wrinkles and kinks, less so when talking of shots on target.

Th e graph above highlights just how difficult it is for a team to exceed their individual expected number. And all the more so for shot on target which highlights a teams ability to get closer to goal and shoot accurately on target.

We wonder who Fulham are when we look at these numbers and who, or where the may be, if they ever correct their away form.

Actual Shots On Target For vs Expected Shots On Target For

Sot_actual_v_expected_per_season_medium

Blue is actual shots on target. Red is expected shots on target.

Expected shots on target is the teams possession % x 3.52

Here we see how expected shots on target declines as possession declines.

Sot_actual_v_expected_diff_a_season_medium

Here we see the +/- differential over the course of a season.

We see the best teams excel by this measure and then we see two teams on opposite ends of the possession scale really struggling.

Swansea are desperately poor and I wonder more and more about where their possession took place on the field of play.

Stoke are struggling, but we know about their limitations in terms of creating and shots totals.

Man City lead the league with 44.57 more shots on target than expected.

Sot_actual_v_expected_diff_per_game_medium

This is the differential chart per game.

Man City, Man Utd and Chelsea are having nearly a shot on target extra per game than was expected of them. They are quality numbers when we consider scoring % is 30% in the EPL.

Shots on target is a crucial stat and this post was an attempt to quantify each teams efforts and to see how the delivered when talking of their individual possession number.

Man City win the contest when looking at shots on target and sorry Stoke, again, are the losers.


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