2011/12 EPL Season Review--Adjusted Quality Of Opposition


Part 13 of the season review is called Adjusted Quality Of Opposition.

We use the previous posts data which features each teams Quality Of Opposition schedule, their game difficulty rating in essence. We then adjust it by the total of points each team gained from their individual schedule.

Join me after the jump

Points Adjusted

So now we will take each teams game difficulty rated schedule and adjust it by using each teams points total.

How? We take the points total of a team, turn that total into a points per game number and multiply it by the Quality Of Opposition rating.

Example

Man City 89 points gained.

38 games played.

2.342 points per game

Quality of opposition rating 10.87

Adjusted rating (points per game x QoO rating) is 25.45.

Why have I done this? It's a good way of determining who got the most points from their individually hard or easy schedule. The more points you have the higher the Adjusted QoO rating is likely to be. If a team has lots of points and a high (hard schedule) QoO number, the points adjusted QoO rating is likely to be very high.

A 25.45 adjusted number is the top end, and 6.98 is the bottom end.

Points adjusted QoO rating (38 game schedule)

Adjusted_qual_opp_chart_htm_m4c319fd7_medium

Adjusted_qual_opp_art_htm_3facee5f_medium

Above is the 38 game schedule.

The points adjusted league positions match the real EPL league positions fairly clearly, as we would expect when factoring in points totals per game.

The bottom four 2011/12 teams are still mired in the bottom four even after factoring in easy/hard schedules. The respective points totals were not adequate to move them up a position or two using this measure.

The top 9 clubs remain intact. Sunderland are sinking when adjusting QoO by points. They had the easiest EPL schedule by QoO and their mediocre points total harbors the drop in these rankings.

Arsenal are another club that slides. They were 3rd in the EPL with 70 points but had the 2nd easiest 2011/12 schedule which is why we see the drop.

Man City and Man Utd are running away at the top of the table once we adjusted for points gained. The clubs held a 19 point gap over 3rd placed Arsenal, and despite Man Utd having the 3rd easiest EPL schedule, their points total keeps them in 2nd place and easily so.

Points Adjusted QoO Rating(home)

Adjusted_home_qual_opp_art_htm_m1c4795af_medium

No suprises here. Man City gained 55 points and did so having played out the 2011/12 league's hardest home schedule. Man City are in 1st by a distance.

Man Utd sink to 4th on the back of their easy home schedule. Spurs rise thanks to 42 points and a slightly harder side of mean home schedule.

Arsenal slide, Liverpool tread water on the mean line, 27 home points gained and the 2nd most difficult QoO schedule.

As for Wolves, it's just not pretty. 12 points at home all year and a fair home schedule.

Points Adjusted QoO Rating (away)

Away_adjusted_qual_comp_art_htm_1e45219a_medium

The away schedule shows us Man Utd won this race by nearly as large a margin as Man City won the home adjusted table. Man Utd were easily the best away side and did so with the hardest away schedule.

We then see the top six in a shuffled order filling out the top six by this method. West Brom were the big riser here, gaining 26 points from a middling schedule enabled them to rise to 7th in the away adjusted table.

QPR, dreadful. Stoke had relegation away form despite the easiest away schedule by QoO.

Swansea slip to 16th by this table. They gained only 16 points away from home despite having the 6th easiest away schedule. Swansea were a fine possession team who impressed most people, but away results were not great, 16 points was the 4th worst away haul in the EPL. Better hope that home form holds for 2012/13.

As a note, I wondered why the League's best home team (Man City) had the hardest QoO schedule and the League's best away team (Man Utd) had the hardest away QoO. I'm not sure if it's a coincidence, or a bucking of the trend or something I may have missed.

Maybe we just saw that Man City and Man Utd were easily the best sides in the country. No other team were anywhere near their levels and despite their respective hard home and away QoO schedules, these two teams just plowed through those (minor) obstacles. They were too good not to do so. Anyway it is what it is.

Points adjusting the QoO rating just added another layer of information to what we discussed in the previous post. It hardly turns out any suprising results, but, nor did I expect it to. It was simply way of seeing which team gained the most points given the individual difficulty of that teams schedule.

Thanks for reading. Up next: Possession in the Premier League

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