Euro 2012: Sweden v France Scoring Chance Index

A surprise result as Sweden, without a point from their first two games, upset France who miss out on top spot and now have to face Spain in the quarter-finals.

It was an interesting game to look at from a scoring chance perspective. There were five chances in the first ten minutes and then only one further chance until the 51st minute. Sweden then dominated the early stages of the second half before France staged a late comeback with the introduction of Florent Malouda and Oliver Giroud. France ultimately edged the Scoring Chance Index 9-8 (with it being 3-3 at half time).

For those that follow the blog regularly you will be familiar with what we here have coined ‘Scoring Chance Index' (or ‘SCI'): essentially a model we have developed to try and better understand and measure scoring chances in football. A full breakdown of SCI can be found at this introductory post.

The individual numbers are as follows:

Swedenfrance_sci_medium
Francesweden_sci_medium

A couple of observations:

  • There was a real lack of support for Kairm Benzema and Franck Ribery. Samir Nasri was quiet in comparison to his previous games and Hatem Ben Arfa failed to shine. It was only the introduction of Malouda (who averaged 5.41 scoring chances per 90 mins based on his time on the pitch) and Giroud that sparked a late surge from the French.
  • It was a busier evening for France goalkeeper Hugo Lloris. After only registering a +1rating through the first two games he finished the defeat with a +3 mark. Counterpart Andreas Isaksson was also busy, ending with +4; inkeeping with his tournament as a whole.
  • It was a strong second half performance from Sweden. Of course they got both goals after the break but they had five chances (compared to three first half) in the second half. Seb Larsson in particular had three of his four chances after half time and the impact of substitute Christian Wilhelmsson impact was key, with him averaging 10 scoring chances per 100 touches based on his 45 minutes last night.
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