Euro 2012: Sweden v Ukraine Scoring Chance Index

I looked at the Scoring Chance Index numbers for England v France earlier today and have now had a chance to look at the other game in Group D, featuring co-hosts Ukraine against Sweden, as I look to cover all games within England's group.

For those that follow the blog regularly you will be familiar with what we here have coined ‘Scoring Chance Index' (or ‘SCI'): essentially a model we have developed to try and better understand and measure scoring chances in football. A full breakdown of SCI can be found at this introductory post.

It was an entertaining game with both sides having eight scoring chances apiece; interestingly split 6-2 in favour of Ukraine in the first half and 6-2 to Swden aftere the break - with all three goals coming in the second half.

The individual numbers are as follows (click image to enlarge):

Swedenukraine_sci_medium
Ukrainesweden_sci_medium

A few observations:

  • Sweden will consider themselves unfortunate to not take anything away from the game, but they were undone by two lapses in defence (with credit to Andriy Shevchenko) that led to minus marks being applied on both goals.
  • As well as defending on a scoring chance, Olaf Mellberg was involved in two scoring chances as Sweden pressed late. the Swede was also allocated a minus for allowing Shevchenko's run on the equalising goal.
  • Despite only having 25 touches, Andriy Shevchenko showed his value - being involved in four scoring chances, and of course converting on two.
  • Sweden's big name, Zlatan Ibrahimovich, had a solid evening being involved in four scoring chances from just 50 touches and linked well with Kim Kjallstrom who had four from 47.

Both sets of numbers from the game suggest that whilst England may be pleased to have come sway from the France game with a point they will face tough games against Ukraine and Sweden, with both sides capable of troubling England's defence.

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