City 3 - 2 QPR: Scoring Chance Index

The shot totals from the win over QPR show that City outshot the visitors by a huge margin of 44-3. There is a growing sense however that shot total numbers on their own are of little use and can be very misleading; evidence of this being that only 15 of City's tally of 44 were on target.

One of the areas I have looked at in recent weeks is to devise a Scoring Chance Index (SCI), essentially to define what can be considered as a scoring chance. The background to this with the full definition can be found here.

What the numbers from Sunday showed that was whilst conceding three scoring chances, City (from a total of 44 shots) had 19. Of this total it was interesting to note that 15 came in the second half, with ten over the last 20 minutes and 5 over the last ten minutes.

From an individual perspective, David Silva was the player involved in the most (12), followed by Carlos Tevez (8) and Sergio Aguero (7). With City pushing hard as the game wore on, the contributions of the substitutes was equally telling: Nigel deJong, Edin Dzeko and Mario Balotelli contributing on ten between them (click to enlarge):

Scoringchanceindex_qpr_medium

And here is the rolling total covering the United, Newcastle and QPR games (click to enlarge):

Scoringchanceindex_total

I'll look forward to expanding this further next season.

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