A Statistical Look At Man City's Home Form

MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - APRIL 11: Manchester City Manager Roberto Mancini shakes hands with Carlos Tevez as he is substituted during the Barclays Premier League match between Manchester City and West Bromwich Albion at the Etihad Stadium on April 11, 2012 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images)

The 163rd Manchester Derby takes place on Monday evening at 8pm GMT. With an extraordinary amount of previews coming your way on Sunday and Monday, I thought I'd nip in there a little earlier and give you an advanced preview of sorts on the biggest Premier League game of the season so far.

After the jump I'll take a look at Man City's home form this season in several categories. I'll also compare Man City's record breaking home form to seasons gone by to see just how good it has been in a historical context.

Here was yesterdays look at Man Utd's away form

Man City home record 2011/12

W 16 D 1 L 0 2.88 ppg

This is the number 1 ranked home record with 49 points from 17 games. Man Utd have the second best home record with 44 points from 18 games.

Just how good is Manchester City's home record in 2011/12 in comparison to EPL history?

2011/12 Man City 49 pts in 17 games

2010/11 Man Utd 55 pts

2009/10 Chelsea 52 pts

2008/9 Man Utd 50 pts

2007/8 Man Utd 52 pts

2006/7 Man Utd 47 pts

2005/6 Chelsea 55 pts

2004/5 Chelsea 47 pts

2003/4 Arsenal 49 pts

2002/3 Man Utd 50 pts

2001/2 Liverpool 41 pts

We can clearly see that Man City's record is right up there with the best when looking at the last 10 years of EPL winners. And with wins in their two remaining games Man City can tie the all time EPL home record for points.

Take away Liverpool's 41 points in 2001/2 and the team with the best home record has gone on to win the EPL title in the other nine seasons we looked at. A good sign for Manchester City, no doubt.

Goals

Goals for 51 Goals against 9

Goals for per game 2.47

Goals against per game 0.52

+/- + 1.95

Man City are 1st in goals for at home and are ranked1st in goals conceded at home

Shots On Target For

129 shots in 17 games for 7.41 shots per game

(League home average 5.25)

Manchester City have a far higher shots on target per game total than the league average. Naturally, this befits a team that has scored 51 goals at home and has 49 points at The Etihad.

Stoke have the lowest shots on target per game with 3.00. This goes with Stokes 1.83 shots on target per game away from home. It adds up to them being a poor side generally.

Yet somehow they are cheating the numbers and surviving in the EPL. A unique style of play and an average shot distance far closer than other EPL teams which allows a higher quality of scoring chance and thus a higher chance at scoring a goal. Must be a helluva team to support.

Shots On Target Against

55 shots in 17 games for 3.23 shots against per game.

Man City's shot differential is + 4.18

Manchester City's shots on target for and against are phenomenal numbers. 7.41 shots for per game is bettered only by Manchester United. These high numbers are a testament to how difficult it is to travel to The Etihad and Old Trafford these days.

A shot differential of +4.18 is a league wide high and backs up Man City's goals and points totals at home this season. The shots for and against are the underlying factors driving Man City's potentially record breaking home form.

Scoring %

129 shots 51 goals 0.39 scoring %

League average away scoring % 0.315

Man City's scoring % is high compared to the League average, but not grossly so.

Man Utd's away scoring % was 0.13 % higher than the away average and thus was leading me to believe that it was potentially unsustainable in the long term and was also (luckily)driving results in their favour.

Manchester City's scoring % is 0.075 % above league average and thus it doesn't appear to contain the same red flags that Man Utd's overly high away scoring % had.

The EPL's best scoring % number goes to Stoke with 0.43 %, and this appears to be keeping them competitive in this league when factoring in that they only average 3 shots per game on target at home.

The lowest scoring % in this years EPL goes to Liverpool who have a horrible 0.19 scoring %. A team of their relative quality surely can't be that bad going into next year, this number will surely rebound towards the mean. ( For those of you who like a bet, back Liverpool in 2012/13's EPL to far surpass this years league finish.)

Home Form By QualComp

I posted the away QualComp table yesterday and what will follow will be the Home QualComp table.

In essence it shows how difficult a clubs set of fixtures has been this season by taking each fixture, looking at where their opponent was in the EPL table and giving that fixture a difficulty rating.

Playing the bottom team has a 1 difficulty rating, playing the top team has a 20 difficulty rating.

It tells us how a particular team has fared with their own uniquely difficult schedule this season. The higher the average difficulty rating the harder the schedule has been.

Here is the EPL table in terms of home form only with each teams average qualcomp game difficulty rating.

Not all teams have played the same number of home games

Man City 10.71

Man Utd 8.78

Arsenal 9.73

Newcastle 8.73

Tottenham 10.89

Chelsea 10.77

Fulham 9.62

Everton 10.42

Sunderland 9.73

Swansea 10.46

Stoke 10.75

Liverpool 10.36

Norwich 10.18

QPR 10.67

WBA 10.48

Blackburn 9.36

Wigan 9.65

Aston Villa 10.18

Bolton 10.48

Wolves 9.53

A couple of standouts here, note the difference between Man Utd's relatively easy QualComp fixtures and Man City's more difficult schedule.

Tottenham have had the most Difficult home set of fixtures and in yesterdays Away table they had the third most difficult set of fixtures. This seasons fixture computer has dished out a cruel schedule for them.

Conclusion

Man City's home record in 2011/12 surely stands out as one of their better campaigns in the history of the club.

A record number of consecutive wins was set, a high total of 51 goals so far, 49 points also. Only 9 goals conceded.

This is an extremely strong club when playing on home soil, we score, we don't concede. We have an average of over 7 shots on target per game. This is an entertaining team at home these days, a far cry from that Stuart Pearce season.

With Man City's scoring % sitting at a healthy 0.39 % and combined with a save % figure of 0.85 (for an incredible PDO score of 124) we can comfortably say that this is a team who score efficiently and are miserly in the quality of shots they concede which keeps their save % so very high

Despite these magnificent numbers I have shown here, can we expect Man City to repeat the trick in next years EPL? To a certain extent, yes.

They will continue to dominate the weaker sides in terms of shots for and against and thus, in all probability, in goals which lead to more points. But a potential 50 point campaign in 2012/13 is probably unlikely. Only Man Utd have back to back 50 point home campaigns. It'll be tough to an ask in my opinion, so expect a slight fall away in next years home form.

Monday is getting closer now, I can feel the anticipation rising ever so slightly as the game edges closer. I believe that Man City's #1 home form will be too strong for Man Utd's #1 away form in a one off, almost cup final game, as it has now become.

Remember the team with the best home form has won the League in the last 9 seasons. If Manchester City can continue that incredible home form shown so far and win on Monday, I think the title will be ours.

I don't normally become nervous for Man City games and I know Danny says the same. Monday at 7:55 pm GMT may well test that.

I think this time I will feel different

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